COVID-19 and Future Conflict
On October 14, I moderated a webinar for The Middle East Institute (MEI) on how the COVID-19 pandemic could affect conflict in that region of the world. You can watch the whole discussion here. A great group of panelists laid out what they anticipate as they look over the horizon:
Alexandra Clare is the CEO of Re:Coded, a terrific organization providing free training in coding and other digital economy skills to young people in conflict-torn countries in the region.
Nancy Ezzeddine from The Clingendael Institute, a think tank in The Hague, started making projections early in the pandemic on how it could shape the future of conflict.
Ross Harrison – my collaborator on a recent paper describing alternate future scenarios on this question – directs MEI’s research across a range of issues and sees how they fit together at a macro level.
A number of “future realities” cut across what all three of them talked about. One is an accelerated erosion of the legitimacy of governments in the region in the eyes and the lived experience of their citizens. Sectarian and other groups are stepping in to provide healthcare, economic aid, and other forms of relief that the governments can’t. That’s good – people are getting help that they need. But some of the groups doing this are ones that have been at the center of conflicts across the region. They will gain even more strength.
That last part is not an optimistic picture – but it provides an opportunity to do what strategic foresight does best. We can “stand” in that future and look back to chart paths that create different, better outcomes – for the people suffering the impacts of COVID-19, and for the conflicts they’re struggling with as well.
This webinar was the latest event under the banner of the Strategic Foresight Initiative, the program MEI launched earlier this year and engaged me to lead. It’s an important venture for MEI, and for Foresight Vector.
For MEI, it’s a new way to bring to life their commitment to go beyond “admiring the problems” of today’s Middle East. In it they’ll envision and analyze futures where those problems have been tackled effectively and creatively. Even more importantly, it’s a laboratory of sorts for crafting practical, implementable advice for regional leaders on how to realize those visions.
For me and Foresight Vector, this program is an opportunity to demonstrate a core strength and value – our ability to build a foresight competency into an organization and its people. When we do that, we’re helping them design their own future and develop new ways of delivering new kinds of value to their customers.
Stay tuned here and on our company page on LinkedIn for information on other webinars and activities we’ll be doing in the months ahead with and for MEI.